Today, Treasurer Scott Morrison will appear at the National Press Club to lay out the foundations for the Government’s tax plan. With his first budget less than three months away, this will be an important statement for one of Cabinet’s most reliable performers.

Two things are clear: there will be no hike in the GST (Prime Minister Turnbull has categorically ruled out such a move) and, as a result, there is almost zero chance of a drop in corporate tax. Instead, Morrison is much more likely to focus on cuts to spending in order to bring about budget repair rather than look at a wholesale restructure of the nation’s tax arrangements.

For the GST, its death seems to come from nervous backbenchers who were worried about keeping their seats following this year’s election if the GST remains on the table. The PM has been very keen to emphasise that Treasury modelling proves there is no benefit to the economy in raising the GST.

 

 

It would have been much more interesting to see a range of conditions – such as a rise of 2.5 points with a broader base to include food, health and education – that might have had a broader impact. Unfortunately, we are not privy to such information.

If the idea of the Treasurer and Prime Minister shirking at the idea of wide scale tax reform makes you want to tear your hair out, you’re not alone. Even the Opposition – in an unusual strategy of suggesting policy rather than attacking it –  has suggestions to better distribute government revenues and target tax concessions.

For the second time since 2013 we’re in a position where the Coalition is in an election-winning position with a populace ready for a new tax regime. Yet again they will seemingly do nothing about it.

 

 

Such opportunities are rare in Australian politics, and the thought that the tough-talking Treasurer hasn’t the guts to argue for real change could be the moment that sets this government up for successive failures.

Today is his last chance to provide a strong narrative for the 2016-17 budget. If there is no clarity after today’s speech, then Australian business has every right to wonder whether the nation’s leadership is asleep at the wheel.

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Treasurer Scott Morrison appears at the National Press Club at 12.30pm Wednesday, 17 February 2016.
The speech is screened live on ABC1 and ABC News24