Strap yourselves in. Today, Donald J Trump becomes president.
Tonight, Donald J Trump will be sworn in as the 45th President of the United States of America… and it’s time to face reality.
Here are a couple of thoughts as to what might be ahead after the political novice is anointed as the most powerful person on earth.
The Inauguration Speech.
Like everything else about Donald Trump, there’s not much of a clue as to what might be planned. In terms of length, predictions range from 140 characters through to another three hours of incoherent rambling as per his campaign.
As for substance, Press Secretary Sean Spice has described the draft as “a philosophical document" rather than "an agenda."
So, style over substance? That sounds familiar for The Donald. The only hope for relief might be if Kanye jumps up and grabs the mike with his classic “Imma let you finish, Donald…”
#Kanye2020 is starting to make sense.
The First 100 Days
Crucial to any President is the ability to harness the momentum that led him into office and force through as much of their campaign agenda as possible. Other than superlatives and slogans (‘Make America Great Again’ and ‘Drain the Swamp’) we know very little. Expect there to be a focus on immigration, tax reform and manufacturing.
Trump is going to build a wall, slash the corporate tax rate to 15% and put up some trade barriers. For a bit of fun, here is an excerpt of his income tax policy direct from donaldjtrump.com:
If you are single and earn less than $25,000, or married and jointly earn less than $50,000, you will not owe any income tax. (Instead, you) get a new one-page form to send the IRS saying, “I win.”
Isn’t that amazing?
Conflicts of interest
Oh, boy. This is going to be big.
The next president is in real danger of violating the constitution. While there is no law that requires Trump to sell his assets or place them in a blind trust, it has become a tradition of transparency to do so. As president, it’s simply not a good look to do any form of business as President because of the multiple conflicts that can exist among the many arms of government.
But, as we know, Donald has a huge brain, and doing both wouldn’t actually be a problem. However, BECAUSE HE WANTS TO DO THE RIGHT THING, he is getting his sons to look after the Trump business.
The problem with this strategy is obvious. The ABC reports there are 140 companies in the Trump organisation that operate in 25 countries. Any tax concession, development approval or government contract related to any of these companies could (rightly) be perceived as a conflict. That’s on top of the egregious opening of a Trump Hotel within sight of the White House.
There is a crucial part of the US Constitution commonly known as the Emuloments Clause. The clause is a single sentence that is oft-cited as the key reason that Trump’s business arrangements are wholly inadequate:
“…without the consent of the Congress, accept of any present, emolument, office, or title, of any kind whatever, from any king, prince, or foreign state.”
So, he’s going to almost knowingly break the US Constitution. And we all know what that means…
(drum roll, please…)
…impeachment!
There is almost an odds-on chance that sometime in the first 12 months, The President of the United States is going to be impeached (and this time it will be for a lot more than a curiously-placed cigar).
Trump’s business dealings are bad enough, but his biggest problem is that he has spent much of the last 12 months actively baiting the press… and that is going to come back and hurt him.
As argued by Jack Shafer in Politico, by being openly hostile towards the White House Correspondents Association – to the point of threatening exclusion from their eponymous building – the symbiotic relationship between politicians and journos has been destroyed.
If the press no longer needs to groom members of Congress for information (because it simply isn’t forthcoming), then they are free to report on whatever they want.
And you can bet one thing they want is to go after Trump. As Shafer points out, many major outlets have built teams to go through every possible aspect of Trump’s business with a fine-toothed comb. For a man that plays so fast and loose, with so little transparency and little interest in due process, it can only be a matter of time.
Pass the popcorn, please. This is going to be quite a ride.