Brexit: The continuing aftermath

Nic Crowther
Mon 27 Jun

As the sun rises on a new week, plenty of investors, analysts and bankers will be looking at their terminals and wondering what move to make next. Such is the turmoil falling out of Friday’s Brexit, that markets will tread carefully as the change washes through.

Across the globe, Friday saw some US$2.1 trillion wiped off the markets – a number that exceeds the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy during the 2008 financial crisis and the Black Monday stock market crash of 1987, according to Standard & Poor.

 

 

And the problems continue. David Cameron’s resignation as muddied the waters even further, with a tussle between Boris Johnson and the UK Interior Minister, Theresa May, tussling over who will inherit the poisoned chalice of Tory leadership throughout this disaster.

For the Opposition, things aren’t looking much better. Leader Jeremy Corbyn has sacked the shadow Interior Minister, Hilary Benn, over a perceived challenge to his position. That move led to ten other members (and counting) from the shadow cabinet resigning, to leave Labor in as much turmoil as the government.

When the markets realised that the Brexit was inevitable, all hope went to consistent and stable leadership to guide the country through these troubled waters. Clearly, that’s not going to happen.

 

 

The bigger problem is that, after seven years of trying to recover from the 2008 financial crisis, central banks across the globe have very few levers left to assist the markets and prop up their position.

The Great British Pound remains 11% down for the week. There’s almost no way to fix this outside of stability and a careful path forward – a course that seems increasingly unlikely.

Even China – hailed as the saviour of the last crisis – has seen its debt-to-GDP ratio grow by 50% in that time, despite a growth average of 9% per annum. No help there, we imagine.

Anyway. Strap yourselves in and get prepared for a rough ride. The Brexit has a long way to go before we know the total effect of last Thursday’s vote.